Mussab

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 97

Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▲1

Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.0

Today: 1

Class gap: -1.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Newcastle	4	1st	5th	−3	5.2
2026-08-21	York	1	6th	6th	+0	4.5
2026-06-20	Royal Ascot	1	3rd	3rd	+0	7.5
2026-05-23	York	3	3rd	6th	−2	4.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength100%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/05/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	71%	+0.08
20/06/2026	3rd	66/1	0%	90%	+0.90
21/08/2026	6th	25/1	0%	44%	+0.44
03/09/2026	1st	1/4	99%	100%	+0.01