8
Sydney Grace
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 75
Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |