6
Underdog
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 79
Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 3 | 9th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 15th | 15th | +0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/06/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 17/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 12/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |