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3

Brazilian Rose

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 90

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of 4 handicaps at Southwell this season but she's not up to this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 79 · 7f1y Std 130 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 79 par27/022OR 794 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f16y Std 129 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 79 par13/034OR 792 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 7f15y Gd 129 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 85 par6/061OR 851 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f1y Goo 128 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par1 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 95 par7/071OR 951 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 91 par16/081OR 91projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Pontefract17th7th0
2026-07-29Goodwood112th12th+0
2026-07-07Pontefract19th9th0
2026-06-27Chester16th6th0
2026-06-06Musselburgh15th5th0
2026-04-03Newcastle23rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/023/047/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/02/20264th18/15%70%+0.65
09/03/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
13/03/20261st11/588%100%+0.12
03/04/20263rd25/10%80%+0.80
06/06/20265th28/10%33%+0.33
27/06/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
07/07/20269th66/10%27%+0.27
29/07/202612th150/10%8%+0.08
16/08/20267th125/10%33%+0.33