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10

Catching The Moon

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 94

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won the Firth of Clyde at this meeting as a 2-y-o but has plenty to prove after 3 below-par efforts this year (seemingly flattered when held up in a strongly-run race last time).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 30/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 12830/0745 @ Beverley 14/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 12814/0851 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0911 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 98 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 98 par18/041OR 981 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 98 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 98 par10/071OR 981 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 95 par16/081OR 95projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Pontefract14th4th0
2026-07-10York113th13th+0
2026-04-18Newbury112th12th+0
2025-09-20Ayr11st1st+0
2025-08-14Beverley51st6th−4
2025-07-30Leicester42nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0714/0820/0918/0410/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46
14/08/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
20/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
18/04/202612th9/153%15%-0.37
10/07/202613th66/10%0%0.00
16/08/20264th50/10%67%+0.67