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4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 97

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has found some improvement of late, nicely on top when winning at Pontefract before backing that up with a close fourth off 5 lb higher at Ascot. Well worth another shot at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 4f214y Std 124 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 86 par13/072OR 863 @ Redcar 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 86 · 5f GF 128 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 90 par20/082OR 902 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 90 · 4f214y Sta 124 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 90 par1 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 90 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 90 par20/061OR 901 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 90 · 5f7y Gd 133 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 90 par1/082OR 902 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 5f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 97 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 97 par5/092OR 97projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot24th5th−1
2026-08-16Pontefract21st2nd−1
2026-08-01Hamilton23rd4th−1
2026-07-10York19th9th+0
2026-06-20Ayr14th4th0
2026-05-31Thirsk2−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0721/091/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20253rd13/266%80%+0.14
09/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
20/08/202514th6/168%28%-0.41
21/09/20254th25/10%77%+0.77
20/06/20264th18/15%79%+0.73
10/07/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
01/08/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
16/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
05/09/20264th7/282%73%-0.09