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11

Focaccia

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 88

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden winner at Bellewstown in July and excelled herself when third in listed race at Cork 19 days ago. This much tougher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength27%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 119 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 73 par3/0673OR 73C8 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 72 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 5f3y Gd 129 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 69 par3/07C8OR 69BHA76 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 76 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 75 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 75 par22/071OR 75BHA78 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 5f205y Goo 130 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 78 parBHA78 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f GF 119 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 78 par9/0878OR 781 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f205y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 78 par1 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 5f Yie 126 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par30/081OR 83projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork13rd3rd0
2026-08-23Naas16th6th+0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA788th16th−7
2026-08-03NaasBHA782nd10th−7
2026-07-22Naas18th8th0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA767th15th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0618/079/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/202611th20/10%9%+0.09
27/06/20267th50/10%68%+0.68
03/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
18/07/20267th20/10%65%+0.65
22/07/20268th80/10%50%+0.50
03/08/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
09/08/20268th10/147%36%-0.11
23/08/20266th150/10%29%+0.29
30/08/20263rd22/10%71%+0.71