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5

Heavenly Heather

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 103

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had plenty to find but acquitted herself very well at the highest level on 2 of her last 3 starts (excuses at this level in between) so looks a strong player if able to reproduce that form down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 84 par13/014OR 842 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 84 · 6f Std 123 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 90 par6/023OR 902 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 93 · 5f1y Sft 126 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 93 par4/042OR 932 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 92 · 5f Gd 127 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 92 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 26 · OR 92 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 92 par16/061OR 921 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 122 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 104 · 5f GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 104 par21/081OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York110th9th+1
2026-07-11York112th12th0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot16th5th+1
2026-05-14York22nd3rd−1
2026-04-04Musselburgh24th5th−1
2026-03-19Newcastle25th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0119/0316/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
16/01/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
06/02/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
19/03/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
04/04/20264th18/15%77%+0.72
14/05/20262nd14/126%95%+0.69
16/06/20266th40/10%80%+0.80
11/07/202612th13/266%8%-0.57
21/08/202610th80/10%47%+0.47