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6

La Brodeuse

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 98

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Debut 1m winner in France for Andre Fabre. Useful form in defeat for current yard this season, not disgraced having a first try at sprinting when third in Group 3 at Deauville.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12316/05C5C1 @ ParisLongchamp 08/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 123C5 @ ParisLongchamp 10/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12210/07C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 122C1 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1239/11C11 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 99 · 7f15y Gd 129 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 99 par6/061OR 991 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 7f Yie 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 99 par1 @ Deauville 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 5f212y Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 99 par30/081OR 99projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Deauville13rd3rd+0
2026-07-30Galway13rd3rd0
2026-06-06Musselburgh14th4th0
2026-05-09Lingfield12nd2nd+0
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?7th7th0
2025-10-16Saint-Cloud?3rd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0516/106/0630/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
08/06/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
10/07/20254th11/486%50%-0.36
16/10/20253rd7/163%83%+0.20
09/11/20257th10/147%65%+0.17
09/05/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
06/06/20264th9/488%50%-0.38
30/07/20263rd13/266%75%+0.09
30/08/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78