12
Lady Youmzain
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 96
Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-17 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |