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7

Luna A Inbhir Nis

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 101

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most progressive at 3 yrs, winning 5 handicaps, and has upped her game further in defeat this season, her latest second in a Group 3 at Sandown a career best. Firmly in the mix with a repeat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 5f Gd 124 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 74 par5/074OR 744 @ York 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 81 · 5f89y Goo 136 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 81 par2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 86 par20/082OR 862 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 5f Gd 124 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 89 par1 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 89 · 5f110y Sft 126 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 89 par19/091OR 892 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 21 · OR 94 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 92 par30/051OR 921 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 96 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 96 · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 96 par4/071OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sandown12nd2nd+0
2026-06-20Ayr16th6th0
2026-05-30Carlisle13rd3rd0
2026-05-14York217th18th−1
2025-09-19Ayr15th5th0
2025-09-06Haydock22nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/076/0930/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
25/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
20/08/20253rd11/271%89%+0.18
06/09/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
19/09/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
14/05/202617th17/255%20%-0.35
30/05/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
20/06/20266th12/137%64%+0.27
04/07/20262nd18/15%88%+0.82