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8

Nariko

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 86

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 4 handicap wins from previous 5 starts at Hamilton last summer but lost her way subsequently and offered little encouragement in listed race at York on belated return 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 25/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark25/05/2024 · OR 71 par25/055OR 714 @ Salisbury 03/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 78 · 6f Hvy 130 · beat its mark03/10/2024 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 25/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 6f2y Sft 134 · beat its mark25/10/2024 · OR 82 par25/104OR 824 @ Goodwood 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 84 · 7f Sft 134 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 84 par2 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 86 · 6f6y Goo 126 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 86 par18/072OR 862 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 25 · OR 90 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 90 par1 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 90 · 6f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 90 par4/101OR 901 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 90 · 6f2y Hvy 126 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 90 par1 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 87 · 6f GS 125 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 87 par6/091OR 87projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York19th9th0
2025-11-08Doncaster18th8th0
2025-10-04Ascot16th6th+0
2025-09-20Ayr211th12th−1
2025-07-18Hamilton21st2nd−1
2025-06-08Goodwood41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/058/064/106/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 9-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
03/10/20241st13/266%100%+0.34
25/10/20242nd3/184%88%+0.03
08/06/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
18/07/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
20/09/202511th7/282%58%-0.23
04/10/20256th25/10%38%+0.38
08/11/20258th28/10%42%+0.42
06/09/20269th80/10%0%0.00