9
Novamay
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 92
Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 4 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 9th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 20/08/2025 | 18th | 18/1 | 5% | 6% | +0.00 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |