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14

Rogue Attraction

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 83

Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Generally progressive in handicaps this season but this is a massive step up. Change of headgear.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength11%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 04/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f182y Goo 1254/0844 @ Catterick 27/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f212y Goo 1281 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0911 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f195y GF 131 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 82 par24/064OR 824 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 5f182y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 82 par28/073OR 824 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 5f182y Goo 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 82 par27/084OR 82projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Carlisle42nd6th−3
2026-07-28Goodwood37th10th−2
2026-07-09Carlisle41st5th−3
2026-06-24Carlisle46th10th−3
2025-10-31Newmarket115th15th0
2025-09-20Ayr114th14th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0831/1028/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20252nd11/1094%83%-0.11
27/08/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
20/09/202514th12/137%0%-0.37
31/10/202515th20/10%22%+0.22
24/06/20266th9/153%0%-0.53
09/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
28/07/20267th14/126%68%+0.42
27/08/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02