15
Shes Got A Brother
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 82
Ayr · Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 5f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 16th | 19th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 3 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Southwell | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 81% | +0.55 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 87% | +0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 30/07/2026 | 16th | 11/1 | 42% | 12% | -0.30 |
| 19/08/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |