21
Al Hussar
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 81
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#23
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#23
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish22nd of 249% of fieldRange 16-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 22nd of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 81% | +0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 94% | +0.36 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.32 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |