3
American Style
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 87
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 12th | 14th | −2 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2487% of fieldRange 1-22 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 94% | +0.46 |
| 10/08/2025 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 87% | +0.29 |
| 13/05/2026 | 20th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 05/06/2026 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 8% | -0.55 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |