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Angel Shared

5yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 77

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally stopped the slide when opening her account for the season in 8-runner handicap at Newmarket (6f, good to firm) last month. Backed that up when fourth at Salisbury 15 days ago but carries a 5 lb penalty for the Newmarket win so isn't obviously well handicapped.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f16y Std 135 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 85 par13/034OR 851 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 84 · 5f10y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f10y Gd 129 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 84 par4/053OR 841 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Newmarket 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f GF 141 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 83 par26/064OR 833 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 79 par28/073OR 794 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 79 par3/092OR 79projClass-projected finish: 6th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury24th4th0
2026-08-21Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-07-28Goodwood39th10th−1
2026-07-17Newmarket34th5th−1
2026-06-26Newmarket46th8th−2
2026-05-22Haydock113th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0322/0528/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2465% of fieldRange 6-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength23%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
05/04/20265th40/10%69%+0.69
04/05/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
22/05/202613th28/10%14%+0.14
26/06/20266th7/282%17%-0.65
17/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
28/07/20269th28/10%58%+0.58
21/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
03/09/20264th12/137%63%+0.26