10
Bone Marra
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 86
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#19
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 2417% of fieldRange 10-25 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 20th of 24.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 19th | 50/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 23/05/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |