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16

Boston Dan

3yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 80

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#13

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 5f winner at 2 yrs for Richard Fahey. Tumbled in weights after a string of below-par efforts to start 2026 and back on form in a first-time tongue tie (retained) when seeing off 10 rivals at Haydock (5f, heavy) a fortnight ago. 5 lb penalty but remains well treated on peak form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 97 · 6f2y Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 97 par25/101OR 972 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 97 par1 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 95 · 5f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 95 par14/051OR 952 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 124 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/062OR 903 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 126 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 84 par3/083OR 842 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 114 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 5f Hvy 134 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 77 par4/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 15th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock41st3rd−2
2026-08-19York215th15th0
2026-08-03Ripon37th8th−1
2026-07-25Chester34th5th−1
2026-06-27York210th10th0
2026-06-13York212th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1013/063/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2483% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20257th9/488%0%-0.88
16/04/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
14/05/202610th25/10%0%0.00
13/06/202612th80/10%48%+0.48
27/06/202610th28/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
03/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
19/08/202615th100/10%22%+0.22
04/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74