14
Brighton Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#20
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#20
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2422% of fieldRange 15-24 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 19th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 72% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 15/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |