13
Fleetwater
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2448% of fieldRange 10-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |