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12

Francisco's Piece

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#21

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#21

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Endured a winless 2025 but mark eased as a result and he bettered his 2 previous efforts this year when ending the drought at Musselburgh (5f, good to firm) in July. Backed it up when second of 9 at Beverley (5f, heavy) 3 weeks ago. All wins have come over the minimum trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 94 par9/082OR 94BHA92 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 23 · OR 92 · 6f Yie 126 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 25 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 92 par20/092OR 923 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 89 · 5f Gd 131 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 89 par2 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 87 · 5f3y Hvy 125 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 87 par25/102OR 874 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 85 · 5f212y Goo 135 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 141 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 83 par9/064OR 834 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 81 · 5f1y Gd 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 83 par29/083OR 83projClass-projected finish: 8th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley32nd3rd−1
2026-07-31Musselburgh41st3rd−2
2026-06-09Carlisle45th7th−2
2026-04-08Catterick47th9th−2
2025-10-25Doncaster25th5th0
2025-10-10York315th16th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0810/109/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2439% of fieldRange 5-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20255th40/10%56%+0.56
14/09/202513th25/10%45%+0.45
20/09/202512th22/10%54%+0.54
10/10/202515th16/116%18%+0.02
25/10/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
08/04/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
09/06/20265th13/266%60%-0.06
31/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
29/08/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35