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24

French Affair

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 82

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#14

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#14

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came good for new yard in 26-runner handicap at Glorious Goodwood and improved further to follow up at Redcar 10 days later (both 6f, good to firm). Latest 7f Epsom third probably shouldn't be used as evidence that the handicapper has got him as being dropped out in a steadily-run race wasn't ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 75 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 75 par18/035OR 754 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 76 par9/054OR 764 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 76 par5/064OR 764 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 26 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par29/074OR 755 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 5f217y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 7f3y GS 138 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 82 par31/084OR 82projClass-projected finish: 18th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Epsom Downs43rd5th−2
2026-08-08Redcar51st5th−3
2026-07-29Goodwood41st3rd−2
2026-06-20Doncaster46th8th−2
2026-06-05Doncaster44th6th−2
2026-05-23York42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0323/0529/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2461% of fieldRange 1-25 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 24.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/03/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
05/04/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
09/05/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
23/05/20262nd25/10%95%+0.95
05/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
20/06/20266th5/287%58%-0.29
29/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/08/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
31/08/20263rd6/594%60%-0.34