7
Hunky Dory
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 4 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2457% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +10.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 30% | -0.57 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |