11
It Just Takes Time
8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#24
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#24
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 244% of fieldRange 15-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 23rd of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |