15
Manila Scouse
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 83
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2452% of fieldRange 15-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.87 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 15/08/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |