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Milford

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 87

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since debut back in spring 2024 but has shaped well when runner-up on 2 of his last 3 starts, leaving impression this return to a bare 6f may suit at Doncaster (6.5f) last Sunday. Yard won this last year with Winged Messenger (runs again).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 25 · OR 96 · 6f Sft 127 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 96 par20/092OR 962 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 94 · 6f2y Sft 132 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 94 par2 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR 92 · 6f2y Hvy 128 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 92 par8/112OR 922 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 par13/063OR 893 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 87 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 85 · 6f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 85 par11/084OR 854 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 87 · 6f Hvy 140 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 86 · 6f111y Gd 120 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 86 par13/092OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster22nd2nd0
2026-09-04Haydock48th10th−2
2026-08-11Hamilton42nd4th−2
2026-07-10York39th10th−1
2026-06-13York310th11th−1
2026-05-31Thirsk26th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0931/0511/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2491% of fieldRange 1-23 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202515th40/10%42%+0.42
24/10/20257th28/10%45%+0.45
08/11/20254th28/10%86%+0.86
31/05/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
13/06/202610th28/10%50%+0.50
10/07/20269th20/10%50%+0.50
11/08/20262nd10/382%91%+0.08
04/09/20268th11/271%46%-0.25
13/09/20262nd22/10%92%+0.92