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18

Rousing Encore

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 82

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored twice (including C&D) in 2025 campaign that also saw him post several good efforts in big-field handicaps. Creditable third to Manila Scouse and Territorial Knight back here in July and there was enough in his recent Ripon fifth to think he's still in form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.9 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 87 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 87 par27/033OR 872 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 88 · 6f2y Goo 133 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 88 par2/053OR 882 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 122 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 86 · 5f182y Goo 131 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 86 par30/053OR 864 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 21 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 140 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 141 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 84 par6/074OR 842 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 83 par3/083OR 83projClass-projected finish: 21st of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Ripon35th6th−1
2026-07-25York219th19th0
2026-07-06Ayr43rd5th−2
2026-06-13York418th20th−2
2026-05-30Carlisle34th5th−1
2026-05-13York215th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0313/056/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2443% of fieldRange 20-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20262nd18/15%92%+0.87
15/04/20265th18/15%67%+0.61
02/05/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
13/05/202615th12/137%33%-0.04
30/05/20264th12/137%77%+0.40
13/06/202618th10/147%15%-0.32
06/07/20263rd4/179%88%+0.09
25/07/202619th40/10%10%+0.10
03/08/20265th17/255%33%-0.22