6
Territorial Knight
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 85
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2435% of fieldRange 22-25 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 16th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 94% | +0.52 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.30 |