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9

U Sure Do

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 84

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#17

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last term who resumed his progress when narrowly taking 6f handicap at Ripon in May. Hasn't troubled the judge since but left impression he should have finished closer (not clear run final 100 yds) when eighth of 15 at York (7f) 12 days ago. First-time cheekpieces added to tongue tie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 7f50y Sft 133 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 77 par20/094OR 774 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 78 · 7f Gd 133 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 77 par18/104OR 773 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 7f15y Sft 128 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 83 par18/044OR 834 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f6y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 84 par11/084OR 842 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 84 · 7f127y Goo 121 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 83 · 7f GS 130 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 83 par6/093OR 83projClass-projected finish: 14th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York38th9th−1
2026-08-22Chester29th9th0
2026-08-11Hamilton46th8th−2
2026-05-08Ripon41st3rd−2
2026-04-18Thirsk44th6th−2
2025-11-05Musselburgh32nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/095/1111/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 2430% of fieldRange 12-25 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 24.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20252nd14/126%90%+0.64
10/10/202514th14/126%35%+0.09
18/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
05/11/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
18/04/20264th8/158%75%+0.17
08/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
11/08/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
22/08/20269th40/10%33%+0.33
06/09/20268th25/10%50%+0.50