5
Vantheman
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 86
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 24100% of fieldRange 2-25 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |