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Wild Clary

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 87

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for some good efforts since handicapping when taking a 6f event at Newbury (good to soft) in June. Made an encouraging return from a mid-season break when fourth of 14 at Haydock (6f, heavy) a fortnight ago. On the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 7f Sta 131 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 78 par3/094OR 784 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 6f3y Sft 134 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 78 par3 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 80 par27/093OR 803 @ Kempton 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Sta 122 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 81 · 6f GS 131 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 81 par16/044OR 813 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 82 · 5f182y Goo 127 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 6f GS 132 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 82 par11/064OR 822 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 87 · 6f Hvy 140 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 87 par4/094OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock44th6th−2
2026-06-18Ripon24th4th0
2026-06-11Newbury41st3rd−2
2026-05-30Carlisle33rd4th−1
2026-04-16Ripon42nd4th−2
2026-03-28Kempton34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0928/0311/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2474% of fieldRange 7-23 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
17/09/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
27/09/20252nd8/158%91%+0.33
28/03/20264th7/163%70%+0.07
16/04/20262nd6/168%93%+0.25
30/05/20263rd13/266%85%+0.19
11/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
18/06/20264th10/1195%50%-0.45
04/09/20264th15/261%77%+0.16