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25

Winged Messenger

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 80

Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a fine 2025 campaign with a win in this race on soft ground under Danny Tudhope. Hasn't fared anywhere near as well this year, including last of 10 at Doncaster on Sunday, but dangerous to dismiss with Tudhope back on board for the first time since last year's success.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 25/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 71 par25/074OR 714 @ Epsom Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 6f3y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 74 par3 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 80 par6/093OR 802 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 25 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 5f217y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 84 par25/054OR 844 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f2y GF 132 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 82 par26/064OR 824 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f6y GS 140 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f3y Gd 136 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 78 par13/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 24th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster410th12th−2
2026-08-21Hamilton47th9th−2
2026-06-26Doncaster45th7th−2
2026-06-13York411th13th−2
2026-05-25Redcar44th6th−2
2025-09-19Ayr21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0719/0926/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2470% of fieldRange 25-25 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20252nd13/266%95%+0.29
15/08/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/09/20253rd16/116%87%+0.71
19/09/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
25/05/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
13/06/202611th12/137%50%+0.13
26/06/20265th7/163%43%-0.20
21/08/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
13/09/202610th6/168%0%-0.68