8
Woven
10yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 84
Ayr · Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2496% of fieldRange 1-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 76% | +0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 95% | +0.58 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |