Empirestateofmind
8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 67
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 28/03/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 06/09/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |