4
Flying Fletcher
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 66
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |