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7

Jewel Maker

11yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 59

Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who ended a losing run in decisive fashion at Carlisle last month. Subsequently came up well short at Leicester following a 7 lb rise and races from an unchanged mark here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f170y Gd 122 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 62 par8/055OR 626 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m1f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 60 · 7f173y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par15/066OR 605 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m1f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m2f42y Sta 127 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 57 par25/076OR 576 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 7f173y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2y Gd 132 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 52 par24/086OR 525 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m1f Goo 142 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f GS 134 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 59 par8/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester67th8th−1
2026-08-27Carlisle51st1st0
2026-08-24Musselburgh64th5th−1
2026-08-11Carlisle66th7th−1
2026-07-25Newcastle67th8th−1
2026-07-04Carlisle57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/054/0724/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20267th50/10%45%+0.45
29/05/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
15/06/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
04/07/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
25/07/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
11/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
24/08/20264th18/15%75%+0.70
27/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
08/09/20267th14/126%25%-0.01