9
Kelpie Grey
6yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 56
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 13% | -0.76 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 9% | -0.75 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 54% | -0.07 |