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Motawaared

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 59

Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who is firmly knocking on the door of a first success. Again responded well to cheekpieces when only foiled by a game rival at Musselburgh (9f). Should go close again from an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m4f104y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 70 par26/044OR 704 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m1f20y GF 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m208y Gd 134 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 65 par5/065OR 656 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m68y Goo 142 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m4f104y Gd 133 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par22/066OR 636 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m2f GF 140 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 58 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 58 par10/086OR 585 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 58 · 1m208y Gd 128 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 1m208y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 59 par12/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh52nd2nd0
2026-08-24Musselburgh52nd2nd0
2026-08-10Ayr64th5th−1
2026-07-20Ayr65th6th−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh66th7th−1
2026-06-10Hamilton65th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0410/0610/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
20/05/20267th18/15%40%+0.35
05/06/20266th7/163%29%-0.35
10/06/20265th9/153%60%+0.07
22/06/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
20/07/20265th13/266%56%-0.10
10/08/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
24/08/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27
12/09/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10