11
Tap Dancer
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 51
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 13/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |