10
Thats My Boy Luke
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 53
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 27/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |