Filly Eilish
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 69
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |