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8

Ice Cube

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 62

Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going sort. Built on previous promise when off the mark in 8-runner Epsom handicap (7f) in July. Looked ready for another crack at 1m when beaten 2 lengths over the same C&D subsequently. Respected sent north by the in-form Richard Spencer yard. Engaged 4.30 Ayr Thursday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0946 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 7f219y GF 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f213y GS 134 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 64 par16/056OR 645 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 61 · 6f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 61 par25/064OR 614 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 59 · 7f GF 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 7f3y Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 59 par16/076OR 595 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f3y Goo 130 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 62 · 7f50y Sft 133 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 62 par17/096OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-08-14Epsom Downs54th4th0
2026-07-16Epsom Downs61st2nd−1
2026-07-10Newmarket46th5th+1
2026-06-25Newmarket45th4th+1
2026-06-05Goodwood56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/095/0616/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20257th80/10%14%+0.14
30/04/20263rd5/493%75%-0.18
16/05/20265th4/179%69%-0.10
05/06/20266th7/282%38%-0.44
25/06/20265th9/153%0%-0.53
10/07/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
16/07/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
14/08/20264th11/271%63%-0.09
17/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26