11
Little Ted
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 49
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 8% | -0.47 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |