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7

Peaceful Spirit

4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 60

Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sold out of the Karl Burke yard for only 2,000 gns following her fourth in an ordinary all-weather maiden. Offered little in 2 starts for current trainer, latterly on handicap debut at Southwell. Plenty to prove returning to turf in first-time tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 09/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0835 @ Southwell 04/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m13y Std 1264/0454 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m13y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS16/0846 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m13y Std 132 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 62 par31/086OR 62projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell613th14th−1
2026-08-16Southwell46th5th+1
2025-04-04Southwell54th4th0
2024-08-09Haydock36th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/084/0416/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +14.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20246th4/179%44%-0.35
04/04/20254th11/142%57%+0.15
16/08/20266th28/10%38%+0.38
31/08/202613th100/10%8%+0.08