1
Sanafi Zabeel
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 68
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 17/09/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |