4
Starliner
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 65
Ayr · Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |