Alpine Sierra
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 63
Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |