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Arch Enemy

7yo Mare · 10-1 · OR 69

Ayr · Slater Menswear Handicap · 1m 5f 26y

#11

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a reduced mark on return at Navan before doing well to defy a penalty at Killarney in July. Still looked in good form both starts last month, beaten 3¼ lengths in a big-field Cork handicap (1½m, good to soft) latest. Player for capable Irish yard (0-5 with UK runners to date).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 66 · 1m4f110y Sft 136 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 66 par1/1066OR 66BHA104 @ Navan 17/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 104 · 2m4f50y Sft 159 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 104 parBHA62 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 26 · OR 62 · 1m Hvy 132 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 62 par15/0362OR 62BHA62 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m4f Sft 122 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA59 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 59 · 1m2f40y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 par11/0759OR 59BHA59 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 59 · 1m3f103y Gd 148 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 59 parBHA70 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 70 · 1m4f Yie 140 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 70 par30/0770OR 70BHA70 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 70 · 1m3f180y Yie 130 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 parBHA70 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 70 · 1m4f Yie 140 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 70 par30/0870OR 70projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30CorkBHA704th6th−2
2026-08-01GalwayBHA705th7th−2
2026-07-30GalwayBHA7012th14th−2
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA591st2nd−1
2026-07-11NavanBHA591st2nd−1
2026-03-28CurraghBHA626th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1028/0330/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20255th11/271%50%-0.21
17/11/20259th80/10%33%+0.33
15/03/20266th40/10%80%+0.80
28/03/20266th8/158%62%+0.04
11/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
15/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
30/07/202612th8/158%31%-0.27
01/08/20265th12/137%73%+0.36
30/08/20264th11/142%82%+0.40